Nuclear war is unthinkable but possible.
“The West, and especially America, is principally responsible for the Ukraine crisis.” – John Mearsheimer
Main aim of “Putin’s war” is to stop Ukraine from joining North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). Putin says that NATO-expansion threatens “our historic future as a nation.” That the expansion is an “existential threat” to Russia. But unmindful of Putin’s concerns, NATO, prodded by the US, continued its expansion. And rubbed salt in the wound by declaring that it is committed to expansion.
Other possible aims of the war
West says that the war reflects Putin’s beliefs that Ukraine, historically, culturally, and ethnically, is Russia; that Ukraine became an independent state because of the folly of the Bolshevik government of Russia; and that the pre-1991 Soviet unity should be restored by gathering the “Russian world of Russians, Belarusians, and Little Russians (Ukrainians).” True that Putin has expressed these beliefs from time to time. But these beliefs are neither the cause nor the goals of the war.
Ukraine as an independent state
From 9-13th century Ukraine was ruled by Kievan Rus, the cultural ancestors of Russia, Belarus, and Ukraine, and then by various other powers. Since 1686, part of Ukraine was under Tsarist Russia’s rule. And since 1783 Ukraine, except for brief periods, was part of Russian Empire and later of USSR. It became independent in August 1991 on the dissolution of USSR. Hence Putin’s assertion that Ukraine was never an independent state.
Genesis of present conflict
The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has been brewing since 2014 when the Ukraine’s pro-Russia president, Viktor Yanukovych, elected in a free and fair election, was ousted with the help̥ of the US and the West. In retaliation, in 2014, Russia annexed Crimea from Ukraine, and backed the separatists in Donetsk and Lugansk in east Ukraine and recognized them as independent states. Over 14,000 people have died in the eight-year strife in the east.
NATO Expansion is the cause of war
NATO was formed in 1949 as a military alliance against the Soviet Union (USSR), and the Warsaw Pact comprising USSR and its eight satellite countries in Central and Eastern Europe.
After the collapse of USSR and Warsaw Pact (1989-91), NATO became a military adversary of Russia. But at a meeting in Moscow on 9 February 1990, US Secretary of State Baker assured Gorbachev, president of Soviet Union, that “. . . not an inch of NATO’s present military jurisdiction will spread in an eastern direction,” or act as a threat to Russia or the newly independent, former Soviet states. But just nine years later, three former members of the Warsaw Pact – Hungary, Poland, and the Czech Republic – became members of NATO. And in April 2008, NATO said,“NATO welcomes Ukraine and Georgia . . . [and] agreed today that these countries will become members of NATO.” NATO had twelve members in 1949. Today it has thirty members. US broke its promise. Putin therefore has reason to disbelieve West’s words.
Many savants forewarned that NATO’s expansion to encircle Russia will force Russia to war. In 1997, former US Defence Secretary Robert McNamara, former CIA Director Stansfield Turner and dozens of foreign policy doyens wrote a joint letter to President Bill Clinton that “the current US-led effort to expand NATO [is] … a policy error of historic proportions.” in May 1998, George Kennan, a noted American diplomat and historian, said about NATO expansion “I think it is a tragic mistake.” At the NATO Bucharest summit in April 2008, US secretary of defence Robert Gates, German chancellor, Angela Merkel, and the French president, Nicolas Sarkozy, opposed NATO membership for Ukraine because they feared it would infuriate Russia. On 19 March 2022, Professor John Mearsheimer, an American political scientist and international relations scholar, repeated his earlier argument that the U.S. push to expand NATO eastward has increased the likelihood of a war between nuclear-armed powers.
Goals of the war
Putin’s main demands are that Ukraine not join NATO, not deploy weapons that could threaten Russia, be neutral, and be demilitarized. His other demands are recognize Crimea as Russian territory and Donetsk and Lugansk (eastern parts of Ukraine) as independent states, make Russian as the second official language of Ukraine, and ban parties and organizations inimical to Russia.
Putin’s special military operation
Putin’s “special military operation” in Ukraine is to achieve these limited aims, not to occupy Ukraine. He has used air power sparingly. He has not attacked roads and railways, has allowed these to be used. He has by and large not attacked civilian targets, not attacked the capital city Kyiv though his military is poised for such an attack for over two weeks and has thus minimized civilian causalities in twenty-six days of war to 977 killed and 1,594 injured as on 22 March 2022. He has not attacked the European Union convoys bringing weapons and military supplies to Kyiv, though he calls these an act of war and has threatened to attack these. He has deployed only 100,000 to 190,000 troops in Ukraine. That force level is grossly inadequate to occupy Ukraine and West knows that.
With all these, he has clearly signaled that he does not intend to occupy Ukraine. But intentions can change overnight. And Putin has the military strength to occupy Ukraine.
Putin’s gambit
Putin adopted a calculated, step by step, approach, to war. He assessed the reaction of the West at each step. He massed troops on Ukraine border from 10 November 2021 onward and watched the West’s reaction. When he was sure that NATO will not intervene militarily, he sent his troops into Ukraine at dawn on 24 February 2022. The war had begun.
And Europe and the US launched an “all-out economic and financial war” against Russia. Putin had anticipated and prepared Russia for the economic war. Nonetheless, Russia economy will be hurt. GDP will reduce, unemployment and inflation will increase. But Europe economy will hurt too. Gas, electricity, food prices, raw material cost, inflation will increase. Especially so if Russia decides to reduce or cut oil, gas, and other supplies – Germany imports more than 50 percent of its natural gas from Russia – to Europe.
Putin’s gambit is that in the face of these economic hardships, political unity in Europe will be difficult to maintain. That the economic sacrifice Russia makes in the short term will ensure that in the long-term Russia occupies the place in the pantheon of world powers that it deserves.
Putin says he will use tactical nuclear weapons if pushed to the wall. He knows that in conventional war NATO will overwhelm Russia. With Russia-NATO troops toe to toe in Europe, the risk of unintended nuclear escalation has heightened.
Putin has put Russia nuclear forces on high alert. On 01 March, Russia nuclear weapon submarines went in sea. On 21 March, France put three nuclear weapon submarines in the sea after 30 years.
War in Ukraine has reached an impasse. Will Putin go nuclear? No. What will he do next?
“Suspense is Putin’s favorite tool” – Lilia Shevtsova, author of the book Putin’s Russia.
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